Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$772.44
54.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPredictionARB<$100 | Overavg 53.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$2.73 | 53% 4578-3991 (8569) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | -$31.49 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $361.58 | $361.58 | +$28.76 | |
SB sbimbgCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $795 | $834.78 | +$39.78 | 70% 3143-1356 (4499) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 44¢ | $154 | $154 | +$0 | 58% 41528-30164 (71692) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 95¢ | $10 | $10.52 | +$0.52 | 67% 23282-11687 (34969) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Underavg 97¢ | $9.7 | $10 | +$0.3 | 36% 15380-27439 (42819) |
DE delacsynzy1CTR | Overavg 55.7¢ | $800 | $0.72 | -$799.28 | 51% 456-431 (887) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $13.77 | $0.01 | -$13.76 | 42% 2235-3034 (5269) |
StudyPredictionARB<$100Invested
$1,600.22
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$2.73
Record
53%
4578-3991 (8569)
Both legs:
Invested
$795
Value
$834.78
PnL
+$39.78
Record
70%
3143-1356 (4499)
VeryLucky888Invested
$154
Value
$154
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41528-30164 (71692)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.52
PnL
+$0.52
Record
67%
23282-11687 (34969)
Invested
$9.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.3
Record
36%
15380-27439 (42819)
Invested
$800
Value
$0.72
PnL
-$799.28
Record
51%
456-431 (887)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$13.76
Record
42%
2235-3034 (5269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.