LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (50%) · Team Liquid at 81¢ · $344K held · ends Oct 31

Team Liquid81¢LOS19¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 50%

Total Value

$344.4K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid81%

LOS20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid8 traders

Total Value$302.3K

Total Shares375,671

Combined PnL+$2.8K

LOS8 traders

Total Value$42.0K

Total Shares214,096

Combined PnL-$777.71

Team Liquid — 50%LOS — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpTeam Liquid 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLOS 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	Team Liquidavg 80¢	$206.1K	$207.4K	+$1.3K	50% 7307-7436 (14743)
CO ColdBlooded	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$62.9K	$64.1K	+$1.2K	72% 140-55 (195)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	LOSavg 20¢	$19.3K	$18.8K	-$482.14	70% 37-16 (53)
DR drunkdegenerate	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$11.8K	$12.0K	+$75	54% 194-165 (359)
IP ipop00CTR	LOSavg 20¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$0	53% 382-343 (725)
FR freeman123	Team Liquidavg 80¢	$8.4K	$8.5K	+$52.5	82% 542-122 (664)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	LOSavg 20¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$200	54% 1214-1020 (2234)
VI vibing123	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$135	52% 1561-1444 (3005)
BB Bb2de66666CTR	LOSavg 20¢	$20.0K	$3.9K	-$100	— 0-1 (1)
StudyPrediction	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10	53% 4573-3988 (8561)
VeryLucky888	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10	58% 41471-30089 (71560)
0X 0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728CTR	LOSavg 20¢	$999.99	$999.99	+$25	50% 152-153 (305)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	LOSavg 21¢	$450.39	$428.94	-$21.45	53% 387-337 (724)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	LOSavg 19.3¢	$72.25	$73.13	+$0.88	46% 7894-9296 (17190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	LOSavg 19.5¢	$29.9	$29.9	+$0	57% 13575-10408 (23983)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Team Liquidavg 79¢	$3.95	$4.03	+$0.08	47% 2251-2536 (4787)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Team Liquid

Invested

$206,066.56

Value

$207.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

7307-7436 (14743)

ColdBlooded

Team Liquid

Invested

$62,871.16

Value

$64.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

72%

140-55 (195)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

LOS

Invested

$19,285.6

Value

$18.8K

PnL

-$482.14

Record

70%

37-16 (53)

drunkdegenerate

Team Liquid

Invested

$11,849.89

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

194-165 (359)

ipop00CTR

LOS

Invested

$9,999

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

382-343 (725)

freeman123

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,400

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

82%

542-122 (664)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

LOS

Invested

$7,999.99

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$200

Record

54%

1214-1020 (2234)

vibing123

Team Liquid

Invested

$7,109.89

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$135

Record

52%

1561-1444 (3005)

Bb2de66666CTR

LOS

Invested

$20,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

—

0-1 (1)

StudyPrediction

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,580

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

4573-3988 (8561)

VeryLucky888

Team Liquid

Invested

$1,580

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

41471-30089 (71560)

0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728CTR

LOS

Invested

$999.99

Value

$999.99

PnL

+$25

Record

50%

152-153 (305)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

LOS

Invested

$450.39

Value

$428.94

PnL

-$21.45

Record

53%

387-337 (724)

38791873984189CTR<$100

LOS

Invested

$72.25

Value

$73.13

PnL

+$0.88

Record

46%

7894-9296 (17190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

LOS

Invested

$29.9

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

13575-10408 (23983)

ameisgoat11<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2251-2536 (4787)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Team Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Liquid 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpTeam Liquid 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLOS 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Liquid 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Team Liquid 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.