LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Gromp Esports - Game 1 Winner
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (50%) · Saigon Warriors at 83¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
6
Saigon Warriors 50%
$1.3K
$18.52
83.1¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO ColdBlooded | Saigon Warriorsavg 83¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$18.25 | — 4-1 (5) |
38 38791873984189 | Saigon Warriorsavg 83¢ | $109.56 | $108.9 | -$0.66 | 48% 674-721 (1395) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Saigon Warriorsavg 84¢ | $99.99 | $100.59 | +$0.6 | 9% 34-365 (399) |
GT gt7238CTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 15¢ | $10.97 | $11.34 | +$0.37 | 2% 7-438 (445) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $0.78 | -$0.07 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Gromp Esportsavg 12¢ | $0.14 | $0.18 | +$0.04 | 52% 223-209 (432) |
Invested
$1,010.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$18.25
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$109.56
Value
$108.9
PnL
-$0.66
Record
48%
674-721 (1395)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$100.59
PnL
+$0.6
Record
9%
34-365 (399)
Invested
$10.97
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$0.37
Record
2%
7-438 (445)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$0.07
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.18
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
223-209 (432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.