LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 3 Winner

19 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (66%) · Saigon Warriors at 100¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 12

Nothin'Here<1¢Saigon Warriors>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saigon Warriors

Consensus Traders

Saigon Warriors 66%

Total Value

$32.5K

Combined PnL

-$900.24

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaigon Warriors at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saigon Warriors

19 of 29 top traders (66%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nothin'Here0%

Saigon Warriors100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saigon Warriors19 traders

Total Value$31.9K

Total Shares32,144

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Nothin'Here10 traders

Total Value$681.12

Total Shares17,387

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Saigon Warriors — 66%Nothin'Here — 34%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaigon Warriors 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Saigon Warriors 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Malfunction-	Saigon Warriorsavg 99.3¢	$16.2K	$16.4K	+$106.17	99% 158-2 (160)
GT gt7238	Saigon Warriorsavg 71¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$907.24	4% 21-459 (480)
SU suntori	Saigon Warriorsavg 91.9¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$157.43	47% 1458-1629 (3087)
BR Brz4629	Saigon Warriorsavg 70.5¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$554.25	75% 15-5 (20)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Saigon Warriorsavg 84.3¢	$3.2K	$1.7K	+$152.25	62% 86-52 (138)
LI lightningbolts	Saigon Warriorsavg 68¢	$874.23	$1.3K	+$410.76	7% 11-145 (156)
SE seeeeeeb	Saigon Warriorsavg 85.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$105.5	48% 344-370 (714)
MP mpyh	Saigon Warriorsavg 97.8¢	$942.18	$962.97	+$20.79	— 10-1 (11)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Saigon Warriorsavg 88.1¢	$4.2K	$762.36	+$77.15	47% 77-86 (163)
PN pnhct	Saigon Warriorsavg 90¢	$11.6K	$543.17	-$225.36	— 9-9 (18)
latvian.demon	Saigon Warriorsavg 87¢	$383.5	$440.57	+$57.07	7% 31-440 (471)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Saigon Warriorsavg 72.5¢	$389.57	$396.82	+$7.25	56% 3892-3057 (6949)
BL bloodmaster	Saigon Warriorsavg 76.4¢	$402.88	$379.92	-$22.96	90% 19-2 (21)
NO NotJumpCTR	Nothin'Hereavg 34.5¢	$530	$285	-$40	54% 410-348 (758)
CL CLj0711CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 27¢	$269.99	$264.99	-$5	— 2-13 (15)
PA pauleta23	Saigon Warriorsavg 68¢	$331.81	$243.32	-$4.86	33% 264-525 (789)
31 319113331313111	Saigon Warriorsavg 74.1¢	$1.2K	$237.45	+$87.28	57% 101-75 (176)
CA calculate10	Saigon Warriorsavg 93.9¢	$713.07	$191.47	-$32.38	26% 40-113 (153)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Nothin'Hereavg 10¢	$94.3	$104.67	+$10.37	27% 21-58 (79)
NO norm1e69<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 74¢	$74	$99.95	+$25.95	44% 1374-1732 (3106)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 76.3¢	$59.25	$55.89	-$3.36	26% 147-422 (569)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 27¢	$15.7	$15.99	+$0.29	41% 525-744 (1269)
solo88888CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 31.9¢	$3.0K	$4.74	$-3.0K	0% 1-203 (204)
38 38791873984189<$100	Saigon Warriorsavg 74¢	$3.13	$3.09	-$0.04	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
AO aomendushen008CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 7¢	$233.52	$1.66	-$231.86	2% 8-455 (463)

Malfunction-

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$16,246.06

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$106.17

Record

99%

158-2 (160)

gt7238

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$2,221.15

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$907.24

Record

21-459 (480)

suntori

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$1,797.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$157.43

Record

47%

1458-1629 (3087)

Brz4629

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$1,325.82

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$554.25

Record

75%

15-5 (20)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$3,177.81

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$152.25

Record

62%

86-52 (138)

lightningbolts

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$874.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$410.76

Record

11-145 (156)

seeeeeeb

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$1,385.25

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$105.5

Record

48%

344-370 (714)

mpyh

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$942.18

Value

$962.97

PnL

+$20.79

Record

—

10-1 (11)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$4,215.73

Value

$762.36

PnL

+$77.15

Record

47%

77-86 (163)

pnhct

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$11,553.01

Value

$543.17

PnL

-$225.36

Record

—

9-9 (18)

latvian.demon

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$383.5

Value

$440.57

PnL

+$57.07

Record

31-440 (471)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$389.57

Value

$396.82

PnL

+$7.25

Record

56%

3892-3057 (6949)

bloodmaster

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$402.88

Value

$379.92

PnL

-$22.96

Record

90%

19-2 (21)

NotJumpCTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$530

Value

$285

PnL

-$40

Record

54%

410-348 (758)

CLj0711CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$269.99

Value

$264.99

PnL

-$5

Record

—

2-13 (15)

pauleta23

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$331.81

Value

$243.32

PnL

-$4.86

Record

33%

264-525 (789)

319113331313111

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$1,150.16

Value

$237.45

PnL

+$87.28

Record

57%

101-75 (176)

calculate10

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$713.07

Value

$191.47

PnL

-$32.38

Record

26%

40-113 (153)

VVVSSPCTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$94.3

Value

$104.67

PnL

+$10.37

Record

27%

21-58 (79)

norm1e69<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$74

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$25.95

Record

44%

1374-1732 (3106)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$59.25

Value

$55.89

PnL

-$3.36

Record

26%

147-422 (569)

sentrioCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$15.7

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$0.29

Record

41%

525-744 (1269)

solo88888CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$3,028.97

Value

$4.74

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

1-203 (204)

38791873984189<$100

Saigon Warriors

Invested

$3.13

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

aomendushen008CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$233.52

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$231.86

Record

8-455 (463)

Research grade

NeutralSaigon Warriors at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Saigon Warriors

19 of 29 top traders (66%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperSaigon Warriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSaigon Warriors 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Saigon Warriors 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saigon Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.