LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner
19 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (58%) · Saigon Warriors at 100¢ · $82K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
33
Saigon Warriors 58%
$82.1K
-$196.73
92¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 19 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
19 of 33 top traders (58%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-22 pts consensus
Breadth
19 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
58% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA Jackenxand | Saigon Warriorsavg 99.9¢ | $45.0K | $45.0K | +$24.14 | 100% 22-0 (22) |
BL bloodmaster | Saigon Warriorsavg 76.3¢ | $10.5K | $13.8K | +$3.3K | 90% 19-2 (21) |
AO aomendushen008 | Saigon Warriorsavg 99¢ | $8.8K | $8.8K | +$79.77 | 2% 8-455 (463) |
GT gt7238 | Saigon Warriorsavg 60.3¢ | $2.4K | $4.0K | +$1.6K | 4% 21-459 (480) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Saigon Warriorsavg 82.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$6.11 | 56% 3892-3057 (6949) |
SE seeeeeeb | Saigon Warriorsavg 95.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.0K | -$656.02 | 48% 344-370 (714) |
 Malfunction- | Saigon Warriorsavg 99.3¢ | $5.4K | $1.5K | +$35.74 | 99% 158-2 (160) |
 TKKnoallin | Saigon Warriorsavg 65.1¢ | $856.36 | $1.3K | +$457.13 | 10% 5-43 (48) |
 Future-Tarot-Trader | Saigon Warriorsavg 72.9¢ | $7.2K | $808 | $-1.9K | 47% 77-86 (163) |
TE testBruno2 | Saigon Warriorsavg 77.4¢ | $4.4K | $806.03 | -$672.33 | 49% 36-37 (73) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Nothin'Hereavg 36.7¢ | $1.6K | $658.84 | -$53.38 | 54% 410-348 (758) |
PA pauleta23 | Saigon Warriorsavg 91.3¢ | $830.11 | $579.37 | -$151.74 | 33% 264-525 (789) |
31 319113331313111 | Saigon Warriorsavg 74.7¢ | $5.2K | $423.94 | -$113.75 | 57% 101-75 (176) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG | Saigon Warriorsavg 72.9¢ | $1.5K | $77.59 | +$554.21 | 26% 147-422 (569) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 77.7¢ | $50.93 | $65.51 | +$14.57 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
CA calculate10 | Saigon Warriorsavg 64.1¢ | $1.3K | $65.26 | +$59.86 | 26% 40-113 (153) |
LI lightningbolts<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $29.99 | +$9.59 | 7% 11-145 (156) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 53.8¢ | $91.72 | $29.7 | -$18.43 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
LR lryyy | Saigon Warriorsavg 84.7¢ | $3.1K | $27.57 | -$592.94 | 45% 368-453 (821) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 78¢ | $12.85 | $14.99 | +$2.14 | 38% 464-772 (1236) |
PN pnhctCTR | Nothin'Hereavg 28.2¢ | $12.0K | $3.73 | -$622.9 | — 9-9 (18) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 73¢ | $2.7 | $3.7 | +$1 | 41% 525-744 (1269) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 1¢ | $50 | $1.85 | -$11.75 | 47% 771-864 (1635) |
 polaroid14CTR | Nothin'Hereavg 41.8¢ | $543 | $1.3 | -$541.7 | — 4-5 (9) |
CL CLj0711CTR | Nothin'Hereavg 18¢ | $180 | $1 | -$179 | — 2-13 (15) |
Invested
$44,953.36
Value
$45.0K
PnL
+$24.14
Record
100%
22-0 (22)
Invested
$10,501.85
Value
$13.8K
PnL
+$3.3K
Record
90%
19-2 (21)
Invested
$8,764.48
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$79.77
Record
2%
8-455 (463)
Invested
$2,428.68
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
4%
21-459 (480)
Invested
$2,040.43
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$6.11
Record
56%
3892-3057 (6949)
Invested
$2,681.56
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$656.02
Record
48%
344-370 (714)
Malfunction-Invested
$5,351.59
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$35.74
Record
99%
158-2 (160)
TKKnoallinInvested
$856.36
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$457.13
Record
10%
5-43 (48)
Future-Tarot-TraderInvested
$7,191.78
Value
$808
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
47%
77-86 (163)
Invested
$4,449.27
Value
$806.03
PnL
-$672.33
Record
49%
36-37 (73)
Invested
$1,594.26
Value
$658.84
PnL
-$53.38
Record
54%
410-348 (758)
Invested
$830.11
Value
$579.37
PnL
-$151.74
Record
33%
264-525 (789)
Invested
$5,245.7
Value
$423.94
PnL
-$113.75
Record
57%
101-75 (176)
Invested
$1,499.19
Value
$77.59
PnL
+$554.21
Record
26%
147-422 (569)
Invested
$50.93
Value
$65.51
PnL
+$14.57
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$1,342.29
Value
$65.26
PnL
+$59.86
Record
26%
40-113 (153)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$9.59
Record
7%
11-145 (156)
Invested
$91.72
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$18.43
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
Invested
$3,058.86
Value
$27.57
PnL
-$592.94
Record
45%
368-453 (821)
Invested
$12.85
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$2.14
Record
38%
464-772 (1236)
Invested
$12,012.81
Value
$3.73
PnL
-$622.9
Record
—
9-9 (18)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$1
Record
41%
525-744 (1269)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$1.85
PnL
-$11.75
Record
47%
771-864 (1635)
polaroid14CTRInvested
$543
Value
$1.3
PnL
-$541.7
Record
—
4-5 (9)
Invested
$180
Value
$1
PnL
-$179
Record
—
2-13 (15)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Jackenxand
Saigon Warriors — $45.0K
bloodmaster
Saigon Warriors — $13.8K
aomendushen008
Saigon Warriors — $8.8K
gt7238
Saigon Warriors — $4.0K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Saigon Warriors — $2.0K
seeeeeeb
Saigon Warriors — $2.0K
Malfunction-
Saigon Warriors — $1.5K
TKKnoallin
Saigon Warriors — $1.3K
Future-Tarot-Trader
Saigon Warriors — $808
testBruno2
Saigon Warriors — $806.03