LoL: Nothin'Here vs Saigon Warriors (BO5) - LCP Promotion Playoffs
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Saigon Warriors (75%) · Saigon Warriors at 86¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Saigon Warriors
4
Saigon Warriors 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$90.13
90¢ → 85.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSaigon Warriors at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Saigon Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU JuiceFarm | Saigon Warriorsavg 90¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$85 | 65% 15-8 (23) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 91¢ | $283.46 | $279.56 | -$3.05 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
| └ Saigon Warriors leg | Saigon Warriorsavg 91¢ | $167.43 | $156.39 | -$11.04 | |
| └ Nothin'Here leg | Nothin'Hereavg 13.1¢ | $115.18 | $123.17 | +$7.99 | |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 91¢ | $99.99 | $93.4 | -$6.59 | 22% 113-411 (524) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Nothin'Hereavg 12.3¢ | $21.27 | $21.74 | +$1.52 | 55% 624-512 (1136) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Saigon Warriorsavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.25 | -$0.05 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
Invested
$1,530
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$85
Record
65%
15-8 (23)
Invested
$283.46
Value
$279.56
PnL
-$3.05
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.99
Value
$93.4
PnL
-$6.59
Record
22%
113-411 (524)
Invested
$21.27
Value
$21.74
PnL
+$1.52
Record
55%
624-512 (1136)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.