Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (43%) · T1 at 60¢ · $36K held · ends Oct 30

T160¢Movistar KOI40¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

T1 43%

Total Value

$36.3K

Combined PnL

$365.45

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 59.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

T160%

Movistar KOI41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T13 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares56,661

Combined PnL+$360.2

Movistar KOI4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares6,255

Combined PnL+$5.25

T1 — 43%Movistar KOI — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on T1. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on T1) and the top 1000 (5 on Movistar KOI) disagree here.

whaleT1 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedT1 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Movistar KOI 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008	T1avg 59¢	$26.1K	$26.3K	+$221.36	50% 7242-7387 (14629)
VI vibing123	T1avg 58¢	$7.7K	$4.6K	+$115.34	52% 1541-1425 (2966)
HU humbleboy	T1avg 59¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$23.5	54% 500-422 (922)
0X 0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728CTR	Movistar KOIavg 41¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0	50% 152-151 (303)
VeryLucky888CTR	Movistar KOIavg 40.3¢	$305.71	$307.49	+$5.28	58% 40728-29460 (70188)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Movistar KOIavg 41¢	$205	$205	-$0	53% 5495-4840 (10335)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Movistar KOIavg 41¢	$5	$2.03	-$0.03	47% 2037-2339 (4376)

jakepaulthegoat2008

Invested

$26,120.31

Value

$26.3K

PnL

+$221.36

Record

50%

7242-7387 (14629)

vibing123

Invested

$7,689.02

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$115.34

Record

52%

1541-1425 (2966)

humbleboy

Invested

$2,773.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$23.5

Record

54%

500-422 (922)

0xd0e952c49e2F8251350fbaBEEa8eAF3Eb0A067fF-1730820030728CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$2,049.96

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

152-151 (303)

VeryLucky888CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$305.71

Value

$307.49

PnL

+$5.28

Record

58%

40728-29460 (70188)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$205

Value

$205

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

5495-4840 (10335)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Movistar KOI

Invested

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2037-2339 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on T1. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on T1) and the top 1000 (5 on Movistar KOI) disagree here.

whaleT1 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMovistar KOI 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedT1 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Movistar KOI 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.