Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Karmine Corp, while the market favors T1 (64%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (38%) · Karmine Corp at 37¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 7

T164¢Karmine Corp36¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karmine Corp

Consensus Traders

Karmine Corp 38%

Total Value

$41.2K

Combined PnL

$310.7

Smart Money Entry

35.1¢ → 36.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors T1 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

T164%

Karmine Corp37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T15 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares52,443

Combined PnL-$320.11

Karmine Corp3 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares22,432

Combined PnL+$630.8

T1 — 63%Karmine Corp — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrT1 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedT1 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000T1 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SK skadii	T1	$28.1K	$28.1K	-$220.04	48% 465-503 (968)
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR	Karmine Corpavg 35¢	$6.1K	$6.5K	+$433.42	63% 41-24 (65)
HU humbleboy	T1avg 64¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$75	54% 521-438 (959)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027	T1avg 64¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$32.84	57% 1108-825 (1933)
VI vibing123CTR	Karmine Corpavg 35¢	$4.2K	$1.1K	+$165	51% 1610-1520 (3130)
Stickman22CTR	Karmine Corpavg 36¢	$753.44	$785.83	+$32.39	52% 1695-1571 (3266)
VeryLucky888	T1avg 62.6¢	$286.8	$111.06	+$7.06	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	T1avg 62¢	$87.73	$88.44	+$0.71	64% 1891-1048 (2939)

skadii

Invested

$28,085.93

Value

$28.1K

PnL

-$220.04

Record

48%

465-503 (968)

GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$6,067.82

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$433.42

Record

63%

41-24 (65)

humbleboy

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$75

Record

54%

521-438 (959)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027

Invested

$1,400.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$32.84

Record

57%

1108-825 (1933)

vibing123CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$4,200

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$165

Record

51%

1610-1520 (3130)

Stickman22CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$753.44

Value

$785.83

PnL

+$32.39

Record

52%

1695-1571 (3266)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$286.8

Value

$111.06

PnL

+$7.06

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$87.73

Value

$88.44

PnL

+$0.71

Record

64%

1891-1048 (2939)

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors T1 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrT1 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedT1 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000T1 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karmine Corp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.