LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner

42 of 99 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (42%) · Karmine Corp at 100¢ · $925K held · ends Oct 31

Karmine Corp>99¢Movistar KOI<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Karmine Corp

Consensus Traders

Karmine Corp 42%

Total Value

$924.6K

Combined PnL

$-31.8K

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 100¢

+65% since entry · 42 traders

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

42 of 99 top traders (42%)57 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp100%

Movistar KOI0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karmine Corp42 traders

Total Value$739.5K

Total Shares739,751

Combined PnL+$133.3K

Movistar KOI57 traders

Total Value$185.1K

Total Shares531,562

Combined PnL$-165.2K

Karmine Corp — 42%Movistar KOI — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKarmine Corp 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpMovistar KOI 60% · 5

Diverging

sniperMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKarmine Corp 55% · 47

Aligned

Hand-pickedKarmine Corp 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Karmine Corp 55% · 51

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Karmine Corpavg 49.5¢	$157.2K	$163.9K	+$6.7K	54% 2417-2096 (4513)
CoinTrick	Karmine Corpavg 99.9¢	$99.9K	$99.9K	+$50	97% 3265-86 (3351)
FK fkAL	Karmine Corpavg 45.4¢	$39.9K	$65.3K	+$25.4K	63% 2038-1206 (3244)
PN pnhct	Karmine Corpavg 52.9¢	$51.7K	$53.1K	+$1.4K	53% 517-450 (967)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Movistar KOIavg 42.4¢	$49.7K	$40.9K	$-8.7K	53% 911-803 (1714)
0xheavy888	Karmine Corpavg 55.3¢	$30.0K	$37.5K	+$7.5K	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
DamwonChampions2026	Karmine Corpavg 52.1¢	$25.4K	$35.0K	+$9.6K	53% 2063-1825 (3888)
minji	Karmine Corpavg 46.7¢	$19.5K	$35.0K	+$15.5K	52% 1794-1651 (3445)
YO yong32CTR	Movistar KOIavg 54.5¢	$33.7K	$33.6K	-$49.03	69% 47-21 (68)
GA gaclfz	Karmine Corpavg 76¢	$34.8K	$33.5K	$-1.4K	73% 1263-470 (1733)
SD sdfqq1CTR	Movistar KOIavg 61.7¢	$40.0K	$32.1K	$-7.9K	59% 271-185 (456)
SI SineNooneEI	Karmine Corpavg 57.3¢	$17.2K	$30.0K	+$12.8K	55% 920-754 (1674)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	Movistar KOIavg 33.5¢	$21.8K	$28.8K	+$7.0K	49% 1161-1212 (2373)
OM omnibus-076daa	Karmine Corpavg 57.7¢	$13.9K	$23.7K	+$9.9K	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
zb8	Karmine Corpavg 59¢	$20.6K	$20.7K	+$94.63	53% 633-551 (1184)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Karmine Corpavg 51.3¢	$21.3K	$18.7K	+$9.7K	54% 2479-2133 (4612)
YI yishiwucheng	Karmine Corpavg 56.5¢	$17.1K	$18.2K	+$1.1K	51% 1817-1747 (3564)
25 254321758	Karmine Corpavg 74.5¢	$56.4K	$16.1K	+$385.12	69% 446-203 (649)
RE redvinny	Karmine Corpavg 82.4¢	$11.4K	$13.8K	+$2.4K	75% 1512-502 (2014)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Movistar KOIavg 48.9¢	$11.7K	$11.7K	+$19.75	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Karmine Corpavg 57.9¢	$6.2K	$10.7K	+$4.5K	54% 1228-1034 (2262)
PO PotatoKotatoCTR	Movistar KOIavg 42.5¢	$14.5K	$10.0K	$-4.5K	59% 142-98 (240)
-Pain	Karmine Corpavg 57.9¢	$8.8K	$10.0K	+$1.2K	55% 414-333 (747)
KateBollinger	Karmine Corpavg 56¢	$5.6K	$10.0K	+$4.4K	68% 1746-810 (2556)
JustADonkCTR	Movistar KOIavg 68.8¢	$44.2K	$8.4K	$-26.7K	55% 894-738 (1632)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Karmine Corp

Invested

$157,165.78

Value

$163.9K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

54%

2417-2096 (4513)

CoinTrick

Karmine Corp

Invested

$99,900

Value

$99.9K

PnL

+$50

Record

97%

3265-86 (3351)

fkAL

Karmine Corp

Invested

$39,929.47

Value

$65.3K

PnL

+$25.4K

Record

63%

2038-1206 (3244)

pnhct

Karmine Corp

Invested

$51,659.09

Value

$53.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

53%

517-450 (967)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$49,654.58

Value

$40.9K

PnL

$-8.7K

Record

53%

911-803 (1714)

0xheavy888

Karmine Corp

Invested

$30,011.58

Value

$37.5K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

DamwonChampions2026

Karmine Corp

Invested

$25,429.3

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

53%

2063-1825 (3888)

minji

Karmine Corp

Invested

$19,516.22

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$15.5K

Record

52%

1794-1651 (3445)

yong32CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$33,674.79

Value

$33.6K

PnL

-$49.03

Record

69%

47-21 (68)

gaclfz

Karmine Corp

Invested

$34,840.1

Value

$33.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

73%

1263-470 (1733)

sdfqq1CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$39,976.13

Value

$32.1K

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

59%

271-185 (456)

SineNooneEI

Karmine Corp

Invested

$17,200

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$12.8K

Record

55%

920-754 (1674)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$21,792.19

Value

$28.8K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

49%

1161-1212 (2373)

omnibus-076daa

Karmine Corp

Invested

$13,880.31

Value

$23.7K

PnL

+$9.9K

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

zb8

Karmine Corp

Invested

$20,619.73

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$94.63

Record

53%

633-551 (1184)

THEHIGHLIFE

Karmine Corp

Invested

$21,251.84

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$9.7K

Record

54%

2479-2133 (4612)

yishiwucheng

Karmine Corp

Invested

$17,100.27

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

1817-1747 (3564)

254321758

Karmine Corp

Invested

$56,391.63

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$385.12

Record

69%

446-203 (649)

redvinny

Karmine Corp

Invested

$11,380.32

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

75%

1512-502 (2014)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$11,673.99

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$19.75

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Karmine Corp

Invested

$6,195.37

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

54%

1228-1034 (2262)

PotatoKotatoCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$14,549.96

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

59%

142-98 (240)

-Pain

Karmine Corp

Invested

$8,818.17

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

55%

414-333 (747)

KateBollinger

Karmine Corp

Invested

$5,599.93

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$4.4K

Record

68%

1746-810 (2556)

JustADonkCTR

Movistar KOI

Invested

$44,212.84

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-26.7K

Record

55%

894-738 (1632)

Research grade

NeutralKarmine Corp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

42 of 99 top traders (42%)57 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

55% of non-arb traders are on Karmine Corp. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKarmine Corp 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpMovistar KOI 60% · 5

Diverging

sniperMovistar KOI 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKarmine Corp 55% · 47

Aligned

Hand-pickedKarmine Corp 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Karmine Corp 55% · 51

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karmine Corp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.