LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LYON - Game 1 Winner

43 of 77 top Polymarket traders hold Invictus Gaming (56%) · Invictus Gaming at 100¢ · $430K held · ends Oct 29

Invictus Gaming>99¢LYON<1¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Invictus Gaming

Consensus Traders

Invictus Gaming 56%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$429.5K

Combined PnL

$-10.5K

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 43 traders

Research grade

NeutralInvictus Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Invictus Gaming

43 of 77 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Invictus Gaming100%

LYON0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Invictus Gaming43 traders

Total Value$313.8K

Total Shares406,420

Combined PnL+$8.6K

LYON34 traders

Total Value$102.3K

Total Shares370,654

Combined PnL$-19.1K

Invictus Gaming — 56%LYON — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Invictus Gamingavg 68.2¢	$50.2K	$48.5K	$-1.7K	53% 2208-1974 (4182)
zb8	Invictus Gamingavg 61.1¢	$46.4K	$46.0K	-$463.89	53% 614-535 (1149)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	LYONavg 39.7¢	$31.1K	$30.9K	-$190.66	50% 7259-7399 (14658)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Invictus Gamingavg 60.7¢	$29.5K	$29.4K	-$76.41	53% 902-791 (1693)
arjennnnn	Invictus Gamingavg 97¢	$24.5K	$24.7K	+$135.51	70% 805-348 (1153)
25 254321758	Invictus Gamingavg 91.5¢	$32.8K	$22.5K	+$637.64	69% 434-198 (632)
JA Ja888	Invictus Gamingavg 91.9¢	$20.5K	$19.0K	+$1.3K	68% 41-19 (60)
PN pnhct	Invictus Gamingavg 74.8¢	$16.9K	$17.0K	+$137.38	54% 464-399 (863)
JO Joofox	Invictus Gamingavg 64.8¢	$10.0K	$14.2K	+$4.1K	63% 72-42 (114)
JustADonk	Invictus Gamingavg 62.8¢	$15.7K	$13.6K	+$480.27	55% 877-720 (1597)
MO MooseborzoiiiCTR	LYONavg 38¢	$11.4K	$11.6K	+$150	43% 26-34 (60)
relativesignificance	Invictus Gamingavg 61.2¢	$14.7K	$10.7K	-$124.11	57% 90-67 (157)
TH THEHIGHLIFECTR	LYONavg 37¢	$13.0K	$9.8K	+$43.76	54% 2467-2120 (4587)
dodsterbotCTR	LYONavg 38.5¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$237.92	46% 624-719 (1343)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Invictus Gamingavg 59¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$75	54% 1174-996 (2170)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	LYONavg 42.1¢	$6.3K	$7.6K	+$1.3K	58% 538-389 (927)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaARB<$100	Invictus Gamingavg 56.2¢	$7.0K	$7.0K	+$70.39	51% 66-64 (130)
└ Invictus Gaming leg	Invictus Gamingavg 56.2¢	$4.8K	$4.2K	-$568.43
└ LYON leg	LYONavg 39¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$638.82
Nooserac	Invictus Gamingavg 60¢	$6.0K	$6.2K	+$150	52% 5717-5282 (10999)
ZX zxc368	Invictus Gamingavg 99.9¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$3	99% 12685-184 (12869)
CA calculate10	Invictus Gamingavg 87.6¢	$10.7K	$5.8K	-$97.4	53% 1215-1071 (2286)
SD sdfqq1	Invictus Gamingavg 96¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$25	59% 262-180 (442)
TokennCTR	LYONavg 41¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$50	48% 648-701 (1349)
saintaphextwin	Invictus Gamingavg 61¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$33.33	38% 384-618 (1002)
RU Ruler11	Invictus Gamingavg 60.4¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$44.88	51% 283-277 (560)
MaktManCTR	LYONavg 40¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$120	54% 38-32 (70)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$50,166.14

Value

$48.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

2208-1974 (4182)

zb8

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$46,434.21

Value

$46.0K

PnL

-$463.89

Record

53%

614-535 (1149)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

LYON

Invested

$31,052.67

Value

$30.9K

PnL

-$190.66

Record

50%

7259-7399 (14658)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$29,496.46

Value

$29.4K

PnL

-$76.41

Record

53%

902-791 (1693)

arjennnnn

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$24,545.58

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$135.51

Record

70%

805-348 (1153)

254321758

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$32,760.39

Value

$22.5K

PnL

+$637.64

Record

69%

434-198 (632)

Ja888

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$20,532.72

Value

$19.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

68%

41-19 (60)

pnhct

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$16,856.14

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$137.38

Record

54%

464-399 (863)

Joofox

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$10,034.4

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

63%

72-42 (114)

JustADonk

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$15,695.35

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$480.27

Record

55%

877-720 (1597)

MooseborzoiiiCTR

LYON

Invested

$11,400

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$150

Record

43%

26-34 (60)

relativesignificance

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$14,674.57

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$124.11

Record

57%

90-67 (157)

THEHIGHLIFECTR

LYON

Invested

$12,981.72

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$43.76

Record

54%

2467-2120 (4587)

dodsterbotCTR

LYON

Invested

$9,377.56

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$237.92

Record

46%

624-719 (1343)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$8,850

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

1174-996 (2170)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

LYON

Invested

$6,317.65

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

58%

538-389 (927)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaARB<$100

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$6,954.22

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$70.39

Record

51%

66-64 (130)

Both legs:

Invictus Gaming$4,787.7856.2¢-$568.43

LYON$2,166.4539¢+$638.82

Nooserac

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$150

Record

52%

5717-5282 (10999)

zxc368

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$5,994

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$3

Record

99%

12685-184 (12869)

calculate10

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$10,736.26

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$97.4

Record

53%

1215-1071 (2286)

sdfqq1

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$4,800

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$25

Record

59%

262-180 (442)

TokennCTR

LYON

Invested

$4,100

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$50

Record

48%

648-701 (1349)

saintaphextwin

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$4,066.19

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$33.33

Record

38%

384-618 (1002)

Ruler11

Invictus Gaming

Invested

$3,169.57

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$44.88

Record

51%

283-277 (560)

MaktManCTR

LYON

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$120

Record

54%

38-32 (70)

Research grade

NeutralInvictus Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Invictus Gaming

43 of 77 top traders (56%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Invictus Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.