Games Total: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 85¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
$514.36
$133.49
46.6¢ → 85¢
+83% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AM ameisgoat11 | Overavg 54.7¢ | $161.18 | $250.56 | +$89.38 | 20% 116-466 (582) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 36.6¢ | $83.57 | $173.33 | +$89.76 | 46% 178-207 (385) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | Underavg 59¢ | $128.27 | $78.26 | -$50 | 46% 507-588 (1095) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Overavg 36.5¢ | $5 | $10.41 | +$5.41 | 40% 2992-4404 (7396) |
CO ColdBloodedCTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $1.8 | -$1.05 | — 4-1 (5) |
Invested
$161.18
Value
$250.56
PnL
+$89.38
Record
20%
116-466 (582)
VeryLucky888Invested
$83.57
Value
$173.33
PnL
+$89.76
Record
46%
178-207 (385)
Invested
$128.27
Value
$78.26
PnL
-$50
Record
46%
507-588 (1095)
Invested
$5
Value
$10.41
PnL
+$5.41
Record
40%
2992-4404 (7396)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$1.05
Record
—
4-1 (5)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.