LoL: FENNEL vs Nothin'Here - Game 1 Winner

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold FENNEL (63%) · FENNEL at 85¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 10

FENNEL85¢Nothin'Here15¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FENNEL

Consensus Traders

FENNEL 63%

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$108.09

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFENNEL at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FENNEL85%

Nothin'Here16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FENNEL5 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares22,888

Combined PnL+$133.78

Nothin'Here3 traders

Total Value$194.88

Total Shares1,348

Combined PnL-$25.7

FENNEL — 63%Nothin'Here — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on FENNEL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFENNEL 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNothin'Here 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Nothin'Here 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO ColdBlooded	FENNELavg 83.9¢	$18.6K	$18.8K	+$130.25	— 4-1 (5)
XT xtxpleasecallme	FENNELavg 85.4¢	$284.97	$285.95	+$0.98	41% 2924-4137 (7061)
38 38791873984189	FENNELavg 85.3¢	$231.26	$233.06	+$1.8	48% 603-645 (1248)
GT gt7238CTR	Nothin'Hereavg 16.4¢	$213.39	$188.59	-$24.79	2% 7-438 (445)
YO yong32<$100	FENNELavg 83¢	$86.85	$87.55	+$0.71	7% 2-26 (28)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 15¢	$6.38	$5.53	-$0.85	51% 197-186 (383)
RL RLWG<$100	FENNELavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.3	+$0.05	69% 1577-725 (2302)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Nothin'Hereavg 16¢	$0.8	$0.75	-$0.05	20% 113-461 (574)

ColdBlooded

FENNEL

Invested

$18,641.34

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$130.25

Record

—

4-1 (5)

xtxpleasecallme

FENNEL

Invested

$284.97

Value

$285.95

PnL

+$0.98

Record

41%

2924-4137 (7061)

38791873984189

FENNEL

Invested

$231.26

Value

$233.06

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

gt7238CTR

Nothin'Here

Invested

$213.39

Value

$188.59

PnL

-$24.79

Record

7-438 (445)

yong32<$100

FENNEL

Invested

$86.85

Value

$87.55

PnL

+$0.71

Record

2-26 (28)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$6.38

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$0.85

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

RLWG<$100

FENNEL

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

69%

1577-725 (2302)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Nothin'Here

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

Research grade

NeutralFENNEL at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FENNEL

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on FENNEL. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFENNEL 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNothin'Here 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Nothin'Here 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FENNEL wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.