Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 46¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

-$80.66

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 46¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares25,696

Combined PnL-$101.01

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,040

Combined PnL+$20.35

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Underavg 50¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$100	50% 1367-1340 (2707)
cs2.quant	Overavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20	57% 114-85 (199)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.64	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Underavg 50.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$18.08	58% 1180-871 (2051)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 50¢	$400	$198	-$2	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$146.93	$120.55	+$0.93	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.3¢	$66.83	$65.04	-$1.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.9¢	$53.37	$55.51	+$2.52
LooksMaxxingxCTR	Underavg 44¢	$97.51	$101.95	+$4.43	51% 908-871 (1779)
CA cay520<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$20	$20.35	+$0.35	54% 75-64 (139)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Under

Invested

$9,999.99

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$100

Record

50%

1367-1340 (2707)

cs2.quant

Over

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20

Record

57%

114-85 (199)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$1,469.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.64

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Under

Invested

$1,045.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$18.08

Record

58%

1180-871 (2051)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$400

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

ghorrockARB<$100

Under

Invested

$146.93

Value

$120.55

PnL

+$0.93

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Both legs:

Under$66.8347.3¢-$1.59

Over$53.3751.9¢+$2.52

LooksMaxxingxCTR

Under

Invested

$97.51

Value

$101.95

PnL

+$4.43

Record

51%

908-871 (1779)

cay520<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.