Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (89%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$82.29

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 100¢

+49% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,795

Combined PnL-$81.16

Under1 trader

Total Value$5

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$1.13

Over — 89%Under — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
S- S-Works	Overavg 68¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$316.45	65% 514-282 (796)
NE newwman	Overavg 67.6¢	$3.1K	$1.2K	-$546.44	53% 371-330 (701)
TA taemaxxARB<$100	Overavg 62.9¢	$536.99	$513.74	-$23.25	68% 19-9 (28)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62.9¢	$408.99	$295.75	-$113.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 32¢	$128	$217.99	+$90
HG HGJGJPQ8	Overavg 65.4¢	$255.19	$263.46	+$8.27	— 2-1 (3)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Overavg 66.9¢	$274.1	$176.97	-$2.52	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.9¢	$136.21	$120.18	-$16.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.9¢	$42.85	$56.79	+$13.94
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 50.1¢	$71.1	$83.07	+$11.97	41% 471-687 (1158)
BR BreakTheBank<$100	Overavg 67¢	$55.46	$55.46	+$0	42% 607-844 (1451)
Anjun<$100	Overavg 60¢	$19.67	$21.48	+$1.8	79% 1554-425 (1979)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$6.13	$5	-$1.13	38% 14-23 (37)
NO Novelty8<$100	Overavg 67¢	$2.91	$2.91	+$0	7% 13-163 (176)
HOG992	Overavg 67¢	$8.5K	$2.36	+$126.79	— 0-3 (3)

S-

S-Works

Over

Invested

$1,793.21

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$316.45

Record

65%

514-282 (796)

newwman

Over

Invested

$3,148.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$546.44

Record

53%

371-330 (701)

taemaxxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$536.99

Value

$513.74

PnL

-$23.25

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

Both legs:

Over$408.9962.9¢-$113.25

Under$12832¢+$90

HGJGJPQ8

Over

Invested

$255.19

Value

$263.46

PnL

+$8.27

Record

—

2-1 (3)

suntoriARB<$100

Over

Invested

$274.1

Value

$176.97

PnL

-$2.52

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Both legs:

Over$136.2166.9¢-$16.45

Under$42.8530.9¢+$13.94

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$71.1

Value

$83.07

PnL

+$11.97

Record

41%

471-687 (1158)

BreakTheBank<$100

Over

Invested

$55.46

Value

$55.46

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

607-844 (1451)

Anjun<$100

Over

Invested

$19.67

Value

$21.48

PnL

+$1.8

Record

79%

1554-425 (1979)

lissartterCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.13

Value

PnL

-$1.13

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

Novelty8<$100

Over

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0

Record

13-163 (176)

HOG992

Over

Invested

$8,471.31

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$126.79

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.