Game 3: Duration Over/Under 32:30 min?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$445.8

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares12,681

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.6

Total Shares2,595

Combined PnL-$964.64

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbg	Overavg 62¢	$5.0K	$5.8K	+$840.58	— 13-6 (19)
Malfunction-	Overavg 99.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$0	99% 260-3 (263)
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.53	98% 424-8 (432)
TI timetowander	Overavg 90¢	$630	$699.3	+$69.3	45% 360-446 (806)
SU suntori	Overavg 62.6¢	$581.64	$588.58	+$346.32	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
TA taemaxx	Overavg 62.1¢	$766.16	$96.35	+$150.41	68% 19-9 (28)
BU BunCaCham<$100	Overavg 98.9¢	$80.08	$80.91	+$0.83	92% 23-2 (25)
LI lissartter<$100	Overavg 55.2¢	$9.1	$11.37	+$2.26	38% 14-23 (37)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.99	+$0.19	41% 471-687 (1158)
rafaleaooCTR	Underavg 37¢	$701.23	$1.9	-$699.34	4% 25-649 (674)
4d9a879611D994FD9B56CTR	Underavg 38¢	$266	$0.7	-$265.3	33% 8-16 (24)

sbimbg

Over

Invested

$4,951.56

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$840.58

Record

—

13-6 (19)

Malfunction-

Over

Invested

$5,123.12

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

260-3 (263)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$1,067.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.53

Record

98%

424-8 (432)

timetowander

Over

Invested

$630

Value

$699.3

PnL

+$69.3

Record

45%

360-446 (806)

suntori

Over

Invested

$581.64

Value

$588.58

PnL

+$346.32

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

taemaxx

Over

Invested

$766.16

Value

$96.35

PnL

+$150.41

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

BunCaCham<$100

Over

Invested

$80.08

Value

$80.91

PnL

+$0.83

Record

92%

23-2 (25)

lissartter<$100

Over

Invested

$9.1

Value

$11.37

PnL

+$2.26

Record

38%

14-23 (37)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.19

Record

41%

471-687 (1158)

rafaleaooCTR

Under

Invested

$701.23

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$699.34

Record

25-649 (674)

4d9a879611D994FD9B56CTR

Under

Invested

$266

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$265.3

Record

33%

8-16 (24)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.