Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$195.15

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 100¢

+99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,832

Combined PnL+$87.34

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,250

Combined PnL+$107.8

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Underavg 52¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$454.68	16% 25-128 (153)
SB sbimbg	Overavg 47¢	$5.4K	$3.3K	+$110.38	— 13-6 (19)
VV VVVSSPCTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$691.35	$961.62	+$270.27	33% 35-72 (107)
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$553.23	$553.5	+$0.28	98% 416-8 (424)
TA taemaxx	Overavg 45.3¢	$699.3	$413.45	-$0.87	68% 19-9 (28)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 49¢	$364.87	$357.42	-$7.45	26% 355-1035 (1390)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 40¢	$331.8	$179.69	-$42.17	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
NE newwmanCTR	Underavg 58.5¢	$1.5K	$102.15	-$593.65	53% 371-330 (701)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$82.78	$84.44	+$1.66	46% 517-595 (1112)
NO Novelty8<$100	Overavg 47¢	$77.28	$78.92	+$1.64	7% 13-163 (176)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 38.8¢	$14.36	$17.78	+$3.41	39% 578-906 (1484)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$20	$16.56	-$3.44	41% 466-680 (1146)
BR BreakTheBank<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.12	$9.52	+$0.4	42% 607-844 (1451)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Under

Invested

$3,376.78

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$454.68

Record

16%

25-128 (153)

sbimbg

Over

Invested

$5,354.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$110.38

Record

—

13-6 (19)

VVVSSPCTR

Under

Invested

$691.35

Value

$961.62

PnL

+$270.27

Record

33%

35-72 (107)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$553.23

Value

$553.5

PnL

+$0.28

Record

98%

416-8 (424)

taemaxx

Over

Invested

$699.3

Value

$413.45

PnL

-$0.87

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$364.87

Value

$357.42

PnL

-$7.45

Record

26%

355-1035 (1390)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$331.8

Value

$179.69

PnL

-$42.17

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

newwmanCTR

Under

Invested

$1,546.78

Value

$102.15

PnL

-$593.65

Record

53%

371-330 (701)

GooooooollllllllllCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$82.78

Value

$84.44

PnL

+$1.66

Record

46%

517-595 (1112)

Novelty8<$100

Over

Invested

$77.28

Value

$78.92

PnL

+$1.64

Record

13-163 (176)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$14.36

Value

$17.78

PnL

+$3.41

Record

39%

578-906 (1484)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$16.56

PnL

-$3.44

Record

41%

466-680 (1146)

BreakTheBank<$100

Over

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

607-844 (1451)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.