Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.9K
$141.43
91.7¢ → 83.9¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$119.52 | 89% 1652-202 (1854) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 90.1¢ | $611.1 | $551.2 | -$59.9 | 82% 1732-388 (2120) |
AV aviato | Noavg 92.5¢ | $330.11 | $292.14 | -$40.47 | 84% 2423-446 (2869) |
 bernardbulletinCTR | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $285 | $269.15 | +$299.98 | 69% 981-443 (1424) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $24.9 | $45.19 | +$61.33 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
elmcap2Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$119.52
Record
89%
1652-202 (1854)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$611.1
Value
$551.2
PnL
-$59.9
Record
82%
1732-388 (2120)
Invested
$330.11
Value
$292.14
PnL
-$40.47
Record
84%
2423-446 (2869)
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$285
Value
$269.15
PnL
+$299.98
Record
69%
981-443 (1424)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$45.19
PnL
+$61.33
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.