Villarreal CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (23%) · Under at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 23%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$0.23

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 81¢

+12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$916.87

Total Shares1,083

Combined PnL+$132.39

Over10 traders

Total Value$309.04

Total Shares1,425

Combined PnL-$132.62

Under — 23%Over — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 71.9¢	$555.25	$660.12	+$104.87	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 74.6¢	$189.62	$217.43	+$27.81	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 31¢	$178.97	$95.26	-$83.71	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$88.16	$78.81	-$9.35	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 30.1¢	$39.83	$39.78	-$0.05	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Underavg 70¢	$56.58	$39.33	-$0.28	65% 2130-1169 (3299)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 27.3¢	$64.68	$37.47	-$27.21	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$93.8	$28.61	+$0.47	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 27.8¢	$16.46	$11.7	-$4.76	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 30.5¢	$13.04	$7.9	-$5.14	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$17.17	$5.24	+$0.09	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$5.68	$2.75	-$2.93	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$5	$1.52	-$0.03	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$555.25

Value

$660.12

PnL

+$104.87

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$189.62

Value

$217.43

PnL

+$27.81

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$178.97

Value

$95.26

PnL

-$83.71

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.16

Value

$78.81

PnL

-$9.35

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.83

Value

$39.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

darkumbreon88<$100

Under

Invested

$56.58

Value

$39.33

PnL

-$0.28

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.68

Value

$37.47

PnL

-$27.21

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.8

Value

$28.61

PnL

+$0.47

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.46

Value

$11.7

PnL

-$4.76

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.04

Value

$7.9

PnL

-$5.14

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.17

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0.09

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.68

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$2.93

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.