Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.1K
$2.01
88.3¢ → 88.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 88.4¢ | $678.4 | $679.3 | +$0.9 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 88¢ | $346.75 | $348.72 | +$1.97 | 64% 10165-5759 (15924) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $80.56 | $80.54 | +$0.46 | 48% 3364-3589 (6953) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $14.08 | $14.16 | +$0.08 | 48% 7443-7977 (15420) |
WA waiermaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $10.44 | $8.85 | -$1.15 | 45% 95-117 (212) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $5.98 | $5.73 | -$0.25 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $1.44 | $1.45 | +$0.01 | 64% 10163-5703 (15866) |
Invested
$678.4
Value
$679.3
PnL
+$0.9
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$346.75
Value
$348.72
PnL
+$1.97
Record
64%
10165-5759 (15924)
Invested
$80.56
Value
$80.54
PnL
+$0.46
Record
48%
3364-3589 (6953)
Invested
$14.08
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
7443-7977 (15420)
Invested
$10.44
Value
$8.85
PnL
-$1.15
Record
45%
95-117 (212)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.73
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.01
Record
64%
10163-5703 (15866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.