Exact Score: Villarreal CF 2 - 2 Getafe CF?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.1K
-$6.04
95.3¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.2¢ | $702.33 | $682.66 | -$0.35 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 95.2¢ | $171.52 | $166.72 | +$3.43 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 95.2¢ | $166.18 | $163.02 | +$0.58 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $39.57 | $38.46 | -$0.2 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $27.51 | $27.14 | +$0.12 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $99.34 | $10.44 | -$0.78 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $10 | $9.72 | -$0.17 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $583.76 | $7.01 | -$9.45 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $0.03 | $0.77 | +$0.74 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $10 | $0.15 | +$0.04 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
Invested
$702.33
Value
$682.66
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$171.52
Value
$166.72
PnL
+$3.43
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$166.18
Value
$163.02
PnL
+$0.58
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$39.57
Value
$38.46
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$27.51
Value
$27.14
PnL
+$0.12
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$99.34
Value
$10.44
PnL
-$0.78
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$0.17
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$583.76
Value
$7.01
PnL
-$9.45
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.74
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.