Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 3.0¢ · $754 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$754.16
$18.77
2.7¢ → 3¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 2.7¢ | $315.83 | $345.53 | +$12.16 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 96.5¢ | $151.26 | $218.58 | +$28.07 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 96.5¢ | $109.21 | $109.6 | +$0.4 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 2.5¢ | $86.49 | $108.97 | +$27.68 | |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 97¢ | $63.05 | $63.62 | +$0.22 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.4¢ | $32 | $39.33 | +$5.33 | 46% 5316-6151 (11467) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 96.6¢ | $36.98 | $37.07 | +$0.1 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 96.8¢ | $31.49 | $31.52 | +$0.03 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 2.8¢ | $431.49 | $12.73 | +$0.79 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.8¢ | $3.74 | $3.95 | +$0.21 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 2.9¢ | $1.88 | $1.82 | -$0.06 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
Invested
$315.83
Value
$345.53
PnL
+$12.16
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
Invested
$151.26
Value
$218.58
PnL
+$28.07
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.05
Value
$63.62
PnL
+$0.22
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$32
Value
$39.33
PnL
+$5.33
Record
46%
5316-6151 (11467)
Invested
$36.98
Value
$37.07
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$31.49
Value
$31.52
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$431.49
Value
$12.73
PnL
+$0.79
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
Invested
$3.74
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0.21
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.82
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.