Exact Score: Valencia CF 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$544.12
97.6¢ → 63¢
-35% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 97.6¢ | $1.1K | $710.74 | -$390.2 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97.6¢ | $848.23 | $547.6 | -$300.63 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $370 | +$356.11 | 28% 1154-3035 (4189) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.5¢ | $371.28 | $239.9 | -$131.38 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $224.11 | $144.9 | -$79.22 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $50.88 | $56.73 | +$5.84 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.9¢ | $48.95 | $31.5 | -$17.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $1.93 | $25.23 | +$23.3 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $71.45 | $46.19 | -$25.26 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $1.82 | $25.75 | +$23.93 | 48% 3364-3590 (6954) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $36.11 | $24.8 | +$14.66 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $29.23 | $18.9 | -$10.33 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $5.08 | $3.28 | -$1.8 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
Invested
$1,100.94
Value
$710.74
PnL
-$390.2
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$848.23
Value
$547.6
PnL
-$300.63
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$13.89
Value
$370
PnL
+$356.11
Record
28%
1154-3035 (4189)
Invested
$371.28
Value
$239.9
PnL
-$131.38
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$224.11
Value
$144.9
PnL
-$79.22
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$50.88
Value
$56.73
PnL
+$5.84
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.45
Value
$46.19
PnL
-$25.26
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$25.75
PnL
+$23.93
Record
48%
3364-3590 (6954)
Invested
$36.11
Value
$24.8
PnL
+$14.66
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$29.23
Value
$18.9
PnL
-$10.33
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$1.8
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.