Will Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$11.6

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 86.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,797

Combined PnL-$25.84

Yes9 traders

Total Value$555.43

Total Shares3,996

Combined PnL+$14.24

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 87¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$24.78	50% 28847-28660 (57507)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$197.34	$212.52	+$15.18	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$157.31	$162.35	+$5.04	50% 21502-21770 (43272)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 87¢	$149.64	$147.92	-$0.86	48% 7436-7974 (15410)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$103.17	$96	-$7.16	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$68.01	$67.42	-$0.2	58% 21580-15650 (37230)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$24.79	$26.7	+$0.95	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.6¢	$25.37	$26.18	+$0.81	48% 1720-1837 (3557)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$98.87	$13.35	+$0.03	64% 10131-5689 (15820)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$10.43	$9.33	-$1	45% 95-117 (212)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.5	$7	+$0.25	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.86	$2	+$0.14	58% 47334-34134 (81468)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,214.46

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$24.78

Record

50%

28847-28660 (57507)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$197.34

Value

$212.52

PnL

+$15.18

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.31

Value

$162.35

PnL

+$5.04

Record

50%

21502-21770 (43272)

Oddstorm

Invested

$149.64

Value

$147.92

PnL

-$0.86

Record

48%

7436-7974 (15410)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.17

Value

$96

PnL

-$7.16

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$68.01

Value

$67.42

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

21580-15650 (37230)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.79

Value

$26.7

PnL

+$0.95

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.37

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

1720-1837 (3557)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.87

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

64%

10131-5689 (15820)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.43

Value

$9.33

PnL

-$1

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.