Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
2 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$12.36
48.8¢ → 47.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 48.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$3.57 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 52.2¢ | $668.27 | $645.9 | -$12.79 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 51¢ | $428.22 | $424.02 | -$4.2 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $200 | $199 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $100 | $101 | +$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $100 | $98 | +$0 | |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 48.7¢ | $149.8 | $150.86 | +$1.05 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $51.44 | $52.02 | +$0.58 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $26.94 | $27.52 | +$0.58 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49¢ | $24.5 | $24.5 | +$0 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $7.35 | $7.35 | +$0 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
Invested
$1,175.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$3.57
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
nigiri99Invested
$668.27
Value
$645.9
PnL
-$12.79
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$428.22
Value
$424.02
PnL
-$4.2
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
Invested
$200
Value
$199
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.8
Value
$150.86
PnL
+$1.05
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$51.44
Value
$52.02
PnL
+$0.58
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Both legs:
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.