Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$31.17

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 69.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,659

Combined PnL-$38.76

Yes10 traders

Total Value$739.36

Total Shares2,065

Combined PnL+$69.93

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$23.47	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$592.5	$556.95	-$35.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.1¢	$447.25	$506.27	+$59.02
38 38791873984189	Noavg 74.3¢	$593.58	$555.6	-$37.98	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
AN Anon455	Noavg 70¢	$434.51	$437.61	+$3.1	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 25.5¢	$117.03	$135.19	+$18.16	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$113.5	$127.77	+$14.27	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$96.02	$118.98	+$22.96	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$92.54	$88.81	-$3.73	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$72.9	$79.65	+$6.75	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 76¢	$59.12	$59.51	+$0.39	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$29.02	$34.76	+$5.74	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$23.37	$22.95	-$0.42	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$14.56	$16.52	+$1.96	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$10.38	$9.79	-$0.59	45% 95-117 (212)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$8.96	$9.16	+$0.19	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$7.06	$7.54	+$0.48	53% 17085-15197 (32282)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.86	$3.73	-$0.13	53% 14954-13478 (28432)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,039.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$23.47

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$592.575¢-$35.55

Yes$447.2526.1¢+$59.02

38791873984189

Invested

$593.58

Value

$555.6

PnL

-$37.98

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Anon455

Invested

$434.51

Value

$437.61

PnL

+$3.1

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.03

Value

$135.19

PnL

+$18.16

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.5

Value

$127.77

PnL

+$14.27

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$96.02

Value

$118.98

PnL

+$22.96

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$92.54

Value

$88.81

PnL

-$3.73

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.9

Value

$79.65

PnL

+$6.75

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$59.12

Value

$59.51

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.02

Value

$34.76

PnL

+$5.74

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$23.37

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$0.42

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.56

Value

$16.52

PnL

+$1.96

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.38

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.59

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.96

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.06

Value

$7.54

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

17085-15197 (32282)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$3.86

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.