Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 6.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 78¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

-$724.07

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 77.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares11,488

Combined PnL-$632.96

Over5 traders

Total Value$602.61

Total Shares3,085

Combined PnL-$91.11

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD vdsgsdfgb	Underavg 78¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$512.82	61% 74-47 (121)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 88¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$112.5	66% 210-107 (317)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 21.4¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$289.27	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.4¢	$945.09	$1.3K	+$379.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 86.2¢	$480.32	$390.18	-$90.14
RN1CTR	Overavg 21.5¢	$686.36	$593.71	-$93.87	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 82.8¢	$422.8	$426.52	+$3.72	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 85¢	$99.71	$105.64	+$5.93	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Under leg	Underavg 85¢	$74.72	$61.54	-$13.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 17¢	$24.99	$44.1	+$19.11
poshposh<$100	Underavg 88¢	$51.71	$41.13	-$10.58	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 80¢	$6.28	$5.49	-$0.79	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
LonnieHawkinssCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$1.92	$2.88	+$0.96	52% 1956-1790 (3746)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$1.91	$2.87	+$0.96	67% 23467-11821 (35288)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.77	$2.31	+$0.54	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$0.53	$0.84	+$0.31	48% 8966-9599 (18565)

vdsgsdfgb

Under

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$512.82

Record

61%

74-47 (121)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$3,262.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

66%

210-107 (317)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,425.41

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$289.27

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Over$945.0921.4¢+$379.41

Under$480.3286.2¢-$90.14

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$686.36

Value

$593.71

PnL

-$93.87

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$422.8

Value

$426.52

PnL

+$3.72

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$99.71

Value

$105.64

PnL

+$5.93

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Under$74.7285¢-$13.18

Over$24.9917¢+$19.11

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$51.71

Value

$41.13

PnL

-$10.58

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.28

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.79

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

LonnieHawkinssCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.96

Record

52%

1956-1790 (3746)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.91

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.96

Record

67%

23467-11821 (35288)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.77

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.