Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 61¢ · $702 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 25%
1 arb excluded
$702.04
-$6.26
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fyrsken | Overavg 59¢ | $300 | $294.92 | -$5.08 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $285.99 | $280.99 | -$5 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41¢ | $164 | $162 | -$2 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 61¢ | $121.99 | $118.99 | -$3 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 40.5¢ | $81.48 | $79.4 | -$2.08 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.4¢ | $43.77 | $44.71 | +$0.94 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 40.5¢ | $7.05 | $2.03 | -$0.02 | 52% 7499-6786 (14285) |
fyrskenInvested
$300
Value
$294.92
PnL
-$5.08
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$285.99
Value
$280.99
PnL
-$5
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.48
Value
$79.4
PnL
-$2.08
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
Invested
$43.77
Value
$44.71
PnL
+$0.94
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$7.05
Value
$2.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
7499-6786 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.