Spread: Real Madrid CF (-3.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid CF (55%) · Real Madrid CF at 67¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 1

Real Madrid CF67¢Real Racing Club33¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Real Madrid CF

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid CF 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

$6.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 67¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Madrid CF67%

Real Racing Club33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid CF6 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares28,346

Combined PnL+$7.2K

Real Racing Club5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,585

Combined PnL-$419.25

Real Madrid CF — 55%Real Racing Club — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleReal Madrid CF 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrReal Madrid CF 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedReal Racing Club 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Real Racing Club 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Real Madrid CFavg 46.7¢	$12.8K	$19.7K	+$7.0K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 38¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$117.68	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
AN Anon455	Real Madrid CFavg 52.6¢	$323.5	$402.71	+$79.21	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
RN1ARB<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 37.4¢	$387.74	$309.1	-$78.63	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ Real Racing Club leg	Real Racing Clubavg 37.4¢	$326.98	$244.78	-$82.21
└ Real Madrid CF leg	Real Madrid CFavg 68¢	$60.75	$64.33	+$3.57
LE LeLynxMalynx	Real Madrid CFavg 23¢	$36.57	$114.48	+$77.12	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
poshposh	Real Madrid CFavg 34¢	$51	$108	+$57	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
SocialistaCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 77¢	$300	$85.5	-$145.5	63% 2725-1611 (4336)
HRTradingCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 58.6¢	$121.06	$58.48	-$62.57	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
GH ghorrockCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 76.5¢	$186.95	$54.03	-$92.91	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 34¢	$3.4	$2.8	-$0.6	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Real Madrid CFavg 68¢	$1.42	$1.5	+$0.08	52% 1956-1790 (3746)
PA pauleta23<$100	Real Madrid CFavg 68¢	$1.42	$1.5	+$0.08	67% 23467-11821 (35288)

GoalLineGhost

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$12,790.62

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

UpTheBluesCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$2,236.86

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$117.68

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Anon455

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$323.5

Value

$402.71

PnL

+$79.21

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

RN1ARB<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$387.74

Value

$309.1

PnL

-$78.63

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

Real Racing Club$326.9837.4¢-$82.21

Real Madrid CF$60.7568¢+$3.57

LeLynxMalynx

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$36.57

Value

$114.48

PnL

+$77.12

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

poshposh

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$51

Value

$108

PnL

+$57

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

SocialistaCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$300

Value

$85.5

PnL

-$145.5

Record

63%

2725-1611 (4336)

HRTradingCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$121.06

Value

$58.48

PnL

-$62.57

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

ghorrockCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$186.95

Value

$54.03

PnL

-$92.91

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$3.4

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

1956-1790 (3746)

pauleta23<$100

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

67%

23467-11821 (35288)

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleReal Madrid CF 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrReal Madrid CF 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedReal Racing Club 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Real Racing Club 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.