Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$1.7K
$2.82
89¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Overavg 86¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$0 | 67% 378-183 (561) |
 LonnieHawkinss | Overavg 98¢ | $245 | $242.5 | +$4.88 | 52% 1956-1790 (3746) |
ZX zxc368 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $153.94 | $149.47 | -$4.47 | 98% 13363-214 (13577) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 84.7¢ | $19.58 | $22.65 | +$3.07 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $20.63 | $20.54 | -$1.35 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $10 | $10.43 | +$0.7 | 67% 23467-11821 (35288) |
Invested
$1,117.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
378-183 (561)
LonnieHawkinssInvested
$245
Value
$242.5
PnL
+$4.88
Record
52%
1956-1790 (3746)
Invested
$153.94
Value
$149.47
PnL
-$4.47
Record
98%
13363-214 (13577)
Invested
$19.58
Value
$22.65
PnL
+$3.07
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$20.63
Value
$20.54
PnL
-$1.35
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.43
PnL
+$0.7
Record
67%
23467-11821 (35288)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.