Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 40¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.2K
-$5.25
40¢ → 39.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$0 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $615 | $395 | -$5 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
 fyrskenCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $200 | $200 | -$0 | 49% 276-287 (563) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $19.6 | $19.6 | -$0.25 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
Invested
$1,600
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$615
Value
$395
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
276-287 (563)
Invested
$30
Value
$30
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.6
PnL
-$0.25
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.