Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 0.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 41¢ · $610 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$610.34
$75.22
71¢ → 40.5¢
-43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
35h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Overavg 62.2¢ | $299.44 | $320.83 | +$21.38 | 50% 37958-37207 (75165) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 28.9¢ | $89.35 | $183.95 | +$94.6 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 62.2¢ | $210.09 | $136.88 | -$73.21 | |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 26.8¢ | $95.93 | $213.24 | +$117.31 | 51% 26315-24941 (51256) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 71¢ | $101.8 | $58.07 | -$43.73 | 48% 61871-66733 (128604) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $5.91 | $12.13 | +$6.22 | 58% 21386-15516 (36902) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $10.65 | $6.08 | -$4.58 | 54% 10087-8472 (18559) |
Invested
$299.44
Value
$320.83
PnL
+$21.38
Record
50%
37958-37207 (75165)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.93
Value
$213.24
PnL
+$117.31
Record
51%
26315-24941 (51256)
Invested
$101.8
Value
$58.07
PnL
-$43.73
Record
48%
61871-66733 (128604)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$6.22
Record
58%
21386-15516 (36902)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$4.58
Record
54%
10087-8472 (18559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.