Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 56¢ · $171 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$170.7
-$28.45
86.4¢ → 55.5¢
-36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $86.86 | $56.06 | -$30.8 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 14.6¢ | $17.79 | $54.23 | +$36.43 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $76.56 | $48.84 | -$27.72 | 51% 38648-37820 (76468) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $12.9 | $8.33 | -$4.57 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $5.04 | $3.25 | -$1.79 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
Invested
$86.86
Value
$56.06
PnL
-$30.8
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$17.79
Value
$54.23
PnL
+$36.43
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$76.56
Value
$48.84
PnL
-$27.72
Record
51%
38648-37820 (76468)
Invested
$12.9
Value
$8.33
PnL
-$4.57
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$1.79
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.