Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 0 Athletic Club?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 59¢ · $827 held · ended Oct 10

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$827.18

Combined PnL

$482.62

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 58.5¢

-35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$616.31

Total Shares1,496

Combined PnL+$559.35

No3 traders

Total Value$210.87

Total Shares318

Combined PnL-$76.74

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$410	+$396.11	28% 1145-2969 (4114)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$237.14	$155.46	-$81.68	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$77.9	$77.9	+$72.77	25% 521-1561 (2082)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$23.17	$71.01	+$48.67	58% 51717-37608 (89325)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$15.6	$57.4	+$41.8	56% 8730-6789 (15519)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 89¢	$32.93	$29.5	-$15	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 89¢	$5.96	$25.91	+$19.95	48% 62396-67251 (129647)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$410

PnL

+$396.11

Record

28%

1145-2969 (4114)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$237.14

Value

$155.46

PnL

-$81.68

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.9

Value

$77.9

PnL

+$72.77

Record

25%

521-1561 (2082)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.17

Value

$71.01

PnL

+$48.67

Record

58%

51717-37608 (89325)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.6

Value

$57.4

PnL

+$41.8

Record

56%

8730-6789 (15519)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$32.93

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$15

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$25.91

PnL

+$19.95

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

69h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.