CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 96¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$111.47
-$36.51
77¢ → 95.5¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 77.9¢ | $73.99 | $47.5 | -$26.49 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $26.54 | $27.01 | +$0.52 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $27.07 | $21.86 | -$5.22 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $11.4 | $7.5 | -$3.9 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $4.59 | $4.69 | +$0.1 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $4.43 | $2.92 | -$1.52 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
nigiri99<$100Invested
$73.99
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$26.49
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$26.54
Value
$27.01
PnL
+$0.52
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$27.07
Value
$21.86
PnL
-$5.22
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$3.9
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.69
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$4.43
Value
$2.92
PnL
-$1.52
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.