Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 76¢ · $467 held · ends Nov 7

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$466.6

Combined PnL

$2.56

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$442.54

Total Shares592

Combined PnL+$3.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$24.06

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$1

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74.7¢	$245.21	$246.36	+$2.16	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
NM NM-P	Noavg 74¢	$226.04	$168.4	+$1.13	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$15.06	$14.63	-$0.43	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 74¢	$11.38	$11.54	+$0.15	50% 26374-25995 (52369)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 75¢	$10.21	$10.21	+$0	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$10.37	$9.42	-$0.58	45% 95-117 (212)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.92	$6.04	+$0.12	48% 3364-3589 (6953)

Flaznorp

Invested

$245.21

Value

$246.36

PnL

+$2.16

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

NM-P

Invested

$226.04

Value

$168.4

PnL

+$1.13

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.06

Value

$14.63

PnL

-$0.43

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$11.38

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

26374-25995 (52369)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.37

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.58

Record

45%

95-117 (212)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

3364-3589 (6953)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.