Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-07?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.3K
$7.75
52.3¢ → 52.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
84h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 52¢ | $475 | $479.57 | +$4.57 | 49% 296-311 (607) |
NM NM-PCTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $301.38 | $304.59 | +$3.21 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53¢ | $229.21 | $224.87 | -$2.16 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.1¢ | $152.45 | $153.93 | +$1.48 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $92.09 | $92.09 | -$0 | 50% 28880-28690 (57570) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $51.81 | $53.49 | +$1.69 | 53% 16962-15085 (32047) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $16.55 | $15.36 | -$1.03 | 48% 62365-67229 (129594) |
Invested
$475
Value
$479.57
PnL
+$4.57
Record
49%
296-311 (607)
Invested
$301.38
Value
$304.59
PnL
+$3.21
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Invested
$229.21
Value
$224.87
PnL
-$2.16
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
VeryLucky888Invested
$152.45
Value
$153.93
PnL
+$1.48
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
Invested
$92.09
Value
$92.09
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
28880-28690 (57570)
Invested
$51.81
Value
$53.49
PnL
+$1.69
Record
53%
16962-15085 (32047)
Invested
$16.55
Value
$15.36
PnL
-$1.03
Record
48%
62365-67229 (129594)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.