Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 3.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 66¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$2.7K
-$91.82
70.6¢ → 66¢
-6% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 72.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$151.57 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 65¢ | $349.6 | $354.98 | +$2.69 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $68.01 | $68.56 | +$5.27 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 27.4¢ | $92.65 | $48.69 | +$58.98 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Underavg 85.5¢ | $51.62 | $39.85 | -$11.77 | 64% 2043-1136 (3179) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 33.7¢ | $34.85 | $39.57 | +$4.73 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $36.32 | $36.87 | +$0.28 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 36.1¢ | $25.99 | $25.17 | -$0.82 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $4.88 | $5.28 | +$0.4 | 55% 1428-1180 (2608) |
Invested
$2,251.63
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$151.57
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$349.6
Value
$354.98
PnL
+$2.69
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$68.01
Value
$68.56
PnL
+$5.27
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$92.65
Value
$48.69
PnL
+$58.98
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$51.62
Value
$39.85
PnL
-$11.77
Record
64%
2043-1136 (3179)
Invested
$34.85
Value
$39.57
PnL
+$4.73
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
Invested
$36.32
Value
$36.87
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$25.99
Value
$25.17
PnL
-$0.82
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$5.28
PnL
+$0.4
Record
55%
1428-1180 (2608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.