Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 2.5

6 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (32%) · Over at 57¢ · $120K held · ended Nov 7

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 32%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$119.8K

Combined PnL

$8.8K

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 57¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$77.3K

Total Shares135,548

Combined PnL+$9.4K

Under13 traders

Total Value$38.1K

Total Shares88,612

Combined PnL-$628.22

Over — 32%Under — 68%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrUnder 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 72% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 57.7¢	$60.8K	$60.0K	-$765.46	47% 206-230 (436)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 43¢	$15.9K	$15.9K	+$0	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 44.2¢	$14.3K	$13.9K	-$395.48	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 58.2¢	$1.6K	$9.1K	+$7.5K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 44.2¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$144.28	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
KY Kyn008	Overavg 56¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$78.76	49% 299-312 (611)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 57¢	$5.7	$3.4K	+$2.6K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 55.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$42.61	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$42.61
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 55.1¢	$4.3K	$2.2K	+$42.88	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$53.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$913.75	$903.13	-$10.63
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$28.75	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 43¢	$2.1K	$645.01	-$15	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$641.9	$610.23	-$31.68	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$563.94	$551.34	-$12.6	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Overavg 58.2¢	$282.01	$276.24	-$5.77	53% 232-209 (441)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 43¢	$215	$215	+$0	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$21.5	$21.5	-$0.25	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$13.35	$13.35	-$0.16	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$8.73	$8.55	-$0.18	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$7.58	$7.58	+$0	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$2.23	$2.17	+$0	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.15	-$0.03	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$60,765.46

Value

$60.0K

PnL

-$765.46

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$15,853.08

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$14,272.11

Value

$13.9K

PnL

-$395.48

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$1,624.18

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$5,206.75

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$144.28

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

Kyn008

Over

Invested

$4,410.62

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$78.76

Record

49%

299-312 (611)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$5.7

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,230.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$42.61

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Over$1,217.9155.1¢+$42.61

Under$1,012.2243¢+$0

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,325

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$42.88

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

Over$1,211.3255.1¢+$53.5

Under$913.7543¢-$10.63

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,265.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$28.75

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,145

Value

$645.01

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$641.9

Value

$610.23

PnL

-$31.68

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$563.94

Value

$551.34

PnL

-$12.6

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Over

Invested

$282.01

Value

$276.24

PnL

-$5.77

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$215

Value

$215

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.5

Value

$21.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.55

PnL

-$0.18

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.58

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 19 top traders (32%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

26% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrUnder 62% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 72% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.