Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 0.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$3.0K
$140.21
89.9¢ → 95¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 88.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$129.71 | 50% 29172-29037 (58209) |
CI cigarettes | Overavg 93.1¢ | $837.45 | $855 | +$17.55 | 50% 59994-58808 (118802) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 5.1¢ | $233.16 | $226.77 | -$6.39 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $30.88 | $30.88 | +$0 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.2¢ | $15.95 | $15.23 | -$0.72 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.24 | $0.3 | +$0.06 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$1,754.3
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$129.71
Record
50%
29172-29037 (58209)
Invested
$837.45
Value
$855
PnL
+$17.55
Record
50%
59994-58808 (118802)
Invested
$233.16
Value
$226.77
PnL
-$6.39
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$30.88
Value
$30.88
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$15.95
Value
$15.23
PnL
-$0.72
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$0.3
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.