Will Málaga CF win on 2026-11-07?

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 57¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 7

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.2K

Combined PnL

-$784.89

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 57.5¢

-2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares20,938

Combined PnL-$193.78

No13 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares22,676

Combined PnL-$591.11

Yes — 32%No — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Yesavg 41.5¢	$8.2K	$8.1K	-$190.58	47% 533-610 (1143)
MR MrBently	Noavg 57¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$43.68	52% 614-558 (1172)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 42.9¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$59.41	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.9¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$32.61
└ No leg	Noavg 58.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.8
AN Anon455	Noavg 60¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$273.4	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 60.5¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$236.06	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 60¢	$1.2K	$968.7	-$26.25	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
NM NM-P	Noavg 59.4¢	$801.5	$816.75	+$15.25	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
GC GC-P	Noavg 59¢	$507.92	$494.9	-$13.02	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$162.93	$172.83	+$9.9	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 43.2¢	$158.55	$152.25	-$6.3	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 59.8¢	$149.24	$143.71	-$5.63	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
VE Venusian	Noavg 62.2¢	$139.56	$133.59	-$5.97	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 43.6¢	$74.7	$69.34	-$5.36	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 59¢	$57.35	$56.85	-$0.5	52% 14650-13313 (27963)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$48.45	$46.72	-$1.73	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 59.3¢	$44.5	$43.13	-$1.38	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 58.9¢	$39.64	$38.67	-$0.97	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$37.3	$37.76	+$0.46	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$9.16	$9.47	+$0.31	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3.25	$3.27	+$0.03	50% 26397-26018 (52415)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,247.03

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$190.58

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

MrBently

Invested

$4,976

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$43.68

Record

52%

614-558 (1172)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,591.23

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$59.41

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Both legs:

Yes$3,363.1242.9¢-$32.61

No$1,228.1258.8¢-$26.8

Anon455

Invested

$3,058.45

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$273.4

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,936.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$236.06

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,200

Value

$968.7

PnL

-$26.25

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

NM-P

Invested

$801.5

Value

$816.75

PnL

+$15.25

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

GC-P

Invested

$507.92

Value

$494.9

PnL

-$13.02

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$162.93

Value

$172.83

PnL

+$9.9

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$158.55

Value

$152.25

PnL

-$6.3

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

38791873984189

Invested

$149.24

Value

$143.71

PnL

-$5.63

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

Venusian

Invested

$139.56

Value

$133.59

PnL

-$5.97

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.7

Value

$69.34

PnL

-$5.36

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$57.35

Value

$56.85

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

14650-13313 (27963)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.45

Value

$46.72

PnL

-$1.73

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

$43.13

PnL

-$1.38

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$39.64

Value

$38.67

PnL

-$0.97

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$37.3

Value

$37.76

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.16

Value

$9.47

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.