Will Málaga CF vs. Real Racing Club end in a draw?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 74¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
2 arb excluded
$4.6K
$20.88
72¢ → 73.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 72¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$32.95 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$16.65 | 64% 10173-5762 (15935) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $612 | $616.25 | +$4.25 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $403.25 | $415.64 | +$12.4 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $931.6 | $919.14 | -$14.16 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $882 | $891.25 | +$9.25 | 64% 10175-5710 (15885) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $612 | $616.25 | +$4.25 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27¢ | $270 | $275 | +$5 | |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $56.7 | $56.7 | +$1.05 | 53% 16962-15085 (32047) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $46.17 | $47.14 | +$0.96 | 58% 21660-15754 (37414) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $13.5 | $13.75 | +$0.25 | 54% 10426-8742 (19168) |
WA waiermaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $10.36 | $9.64 | -$0.18 | 45% 95-117 (212) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $8.68 | $8.68 | -$0 | 50% 26374-25995 (52369) |
Invested
$1,581.47
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$32.95
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
Invested
$1,015.25
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$16.65
Record
64%
10173-5762 (15935)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$931.6
Value
$919.14
PnL
-$14.16
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
Invested
$882
Value
$891.25
PnL
+$9.25
Record
64%
10175-5710 (15885)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.7
Value
$56.7
PnL
+$1.05
Record
53%
16962-15085 (32047)
Invested
$46.17
Value
$47.14
PnL
+$0.96
Record
58%
21660-15754 (37414)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$13.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
10426-8742 (19168)
Invested
$10.36
Value
$9.64
PnL
-$0.18
Record
45%
95-117 (212)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$8.68
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
26374-25995 (52369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.