Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Over73¢Under27¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$6.03

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,265

Combined PnL-$2.5

Under5 traders

Total Value$570.09

Total Shares2,021

Combined PnL+$8.53

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Overavg 73¢	$1.0K	$994.7	-$6.86	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 73¢	$571.87	$575.76	+$3.88	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Underavg 26¢	$499.13	$467.71	+$22.58	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$304.41	$321.97	+$19.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 71¢	$142.72	$145.73	+$3.02
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 27¢	$270	$275	+$5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 27¢	$199.07	$202.75	+$3.69	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 73¢	$47.41	$47.32	-$0.09	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$41.54	$40.77	-$0.77	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 26.5¢	$32.86	$33.14	+$0.28	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 71¢	$22.56	$23.04	+$0.48	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$18.09	$18.43	+$0.34	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 72¢	$11.42	$11.5	+$0.08	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 73¢	$11.35	$10	+$0	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$1,001.56

Value

$994.7

PnL

-$6.86

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$571.87

Value

$575.76

PnL

+$3.88

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$499.13

Value

$467.71

PnL

+$22.58

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Both legs:

Under$304.4126¢+$19.56

Over$142.7271¢+$3.02

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$270

Value

$275

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$199.07

Value

$202.75

PnL

+$3.69

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$47.41

Value

$47.32

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.54

Value

$40.77

PnL

-$0.77

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.86

Value

$33.14

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$22.56

Value

$23.04

PnL

+$0.48

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.09

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$11.35

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.