Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Club Atlético de Madrid (83%) · Club Atlético de Madrid at 69¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Club Atlético de Madrid
12
Club Atlético de Madrid 83%
$9.1K
-$56.67
70¢ → 68.5¢
-2% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Atlético de Madrid at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Club Atlético de Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 69.5¢ | $4.6K | $3.6K | -$48.66 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Club Atlético de Madridavg 70.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$31.26 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
FL Flaznorp | Club Atlético de Madridavg 70.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.4K | -$9.89 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
 0xheavy888 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 70¢ | $581.92 | $573.61 | -$8.31 | 56% 8592-6809 (15401) |
 nigiri99CTR | FC Barcelonaavg 30¢ | $562.2 | $562.2 | +$0 | 45% 14412-17706 (32118) |
PU purplegattoCTR | FC Barcelonaavg 30¢ | $1.4K | $421.5 | +$0 | 49% 6674-6865 (13539) |
SE sentrio | Club Atlético de Madridavg 71.4¢ | $429.37 | $411.67 | -$17.7 | 51% 27916-27361 (55277) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 71¢ | $399.99 | $279.99 | -$4 | 51% 2075-2021 (4096) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 70.5¢ | $59 | $59.98 | +$0.98 | 57% 24613-18229 (42842) |
38 38791873984189 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 71.1¢ | $167.78 | $21.55 | -$0.34 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 71.2¢ | $20 | $14 | -$0.25 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Club Atlético de Madridavg 69¢ | $12.51 | $12.75 | +$0.24 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,558.95
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$48.66
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$1,833.71
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$31.26
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$1,968.67
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$9.89
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
0xheavy888Invested
$581.92
Value
$573.61
PnL
-$8.31
Record
56%
8592-6809 (15401)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$562.2
Value
$562.2
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
14412-17706 (32118)
Invested
$1,405
Value
$421.5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
6674-6865 (13539)
Invested
$429.37
Value
$411.67
PnL
-$17.7
Record
51%
27916-27361 (55277)
Invested
$399.99
Value
$279.99
PnL
-$4
Record
51%
2075-2021 (4096)
Invested
$59
Value
$59.98
PnL
+$0.98
Record
57%
24613-18229 (42842)
Invested
$167.78
Value
$21.55
PnL
-$0.34
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$20
Value
$14
PnL
-$0.25
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
Invested
$12.51
Value
$12.75
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
VeryLucky888
Club Atlético de Madrid — $3.6K
GoalLineGhost
Club Atlético de Madrid — $1.8K
Flaznorp
Club Atlético de Madrid — $1.4K
0xheavy888
Club Atlético de Madrid — $573.61
nigiri99
CTRFC Barcelona — $562.2
purplegatto
CTRFC Barcelona — $421.5
sentrio
Club Atlético de Madrid — $411.67
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Club Atlético de Madrid — $279.99
ghorrock
Club Atlético de Madrid — $59.98
38791873984189
Club Atlético de Madrid — $21.55