Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Draw at halftime?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$1.4K
$98.47
75.3¢ → 89¢
+18% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 81.6¢ | $797.28 | $850.51 | +$53.23 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 65¢ | $125.38 | $126.34 | +$0.96 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 64¢ | $80.05 | $101.99 | +$21.94 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 73.4¢ | $59.83 | $71.71 | +$11.87 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $62.19 | $68.79 | +$6.6 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $65.61 | $65.61 | -$0 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $38.86 | $42.92 | +$4.06 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $13 | $13.1 | +$0.1 | 57% 24661-18268 (42929) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $4.89 | $5.97 | +$1.09 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $2.45 | $2.42 | -$0.03 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
MI MinevaJCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $2.7 | $1.35 | -$1.35 | 56% 1205-933 (2138) |
Invested
$797.28
Value
$850.51
PnL
+$53.23
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$125.38
Value
$126.34
PnL
+$0.96
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$80.05
Value
$101.99
PnL
+$21.94
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$59.83
Value
$71.71
PnL
+$11.87
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$62.19
Value
$68.79
PnL
+$6.6
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$65.61
Value
$65.61
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$38.86
Value
$42.92
PnL
+$4.06
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$13
Value
$13.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
57%
24661-18268 (42929)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$5.97
PnL
+$1.09
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.42
PnL
-$0.03
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$1.35
Record
56%
1205-933 (2138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.