FC Barcelona leading at halftime?
9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
15
No 60%
$4.0K
$765.11
74.4¢ → 95.5¢
+28% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 58.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$598.16 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 87.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$132.71 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
 RN1 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $173.59 | $186.05 | +$12.46 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 77¢ | $167.9 | $178.62 | +$10.72 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
MI MinevaJ | Noavg 86.5¢ | $143.1 | $158.04 | +$14.94 | 56% 1205-933 (2138) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 4¢ | $96.5 | $108.56 | +$12.06 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $66.89 | $73.46 | +$6.57 | 48% 2117-2339 (4456) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $66.72 | $73.24 | +$6.52 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $40.48 | $44.43 | +$3.95 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $23.43 | $10.37 | -$13.06 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $28.14 | $9.05 | -$19.1 | 47% 1624-1831 (3455) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $6.78 | $6.32 | -$0.46 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $4.51 | $4.46 | -$0.05 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.48 | $3.13 | -$0.35 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.98 | +$0.03 | 50% 27934-27381 (55315) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,020.96
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$598.16
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$1,395.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$132.71
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
RN1Invested
$173.59
Value
$186.05
PnL
+$12.46
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$167.9
Value
$178.62
PnL
+$10.72
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$143.1
Value
$158.04
PnL
+$14.94
Record
56%
1205-933 (2138)
Invested
$96.5
Value
$108.56
PnL
+$12.06
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$66.89
Value
$73.46
PnL
+$6.57
Record
48%
2117-2339 (4456)
Invested
$66.72
Value
$73.24
PnL
+$6.52
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$40.48
Value
$44.43
PnL
+$3.95
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$23.43
Value
$10.37
PnL
-$13.06
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$28.14
Value
$9.05
PnL
-$19.1
Record
47%
1624-1831 (3455)
Invested
$6.78
Value
$6.32
PnL
-$0.46
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$4.51
Value
$4.46
PnL
-$0.05
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0.35
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
27934-27381 (55315)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.