Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

$177.12

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares8,117

Combined PnL+$22.08

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,748

Combined PnL+$155.05

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$3.92	98% 20215-401 (20616)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	+$140.91	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.1K	$600.06	+$62.43	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$399.58	$476.09	+$76.52
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$138.06	$123.97	-$14.09
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$473.83	$476.92	+$4.1	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$569.7	$269.46	-$19.4	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$190.82	$171.46	-$19.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.7¢	$83.41	$98	-$0.02
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$271.17	$151.86	+$12.89	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
MI MinevaJCTR	Underavg 53¢	$106	$112	+$6	56% 1209-942 (2151)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 48.2¢	$110.36	$72.79	+$16.03	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 50¢	$48	$50.5	+$2.5	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$20.53	$20.69	+$0.15	50% 27958-27406 (55364)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$64.13	$19.56	-$10.58	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 47¢	$37	$16.28	-$1.11	56% 2669-2059 (4728)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$21.67	$12.14	+$1.72	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9.69	$10.28	+$0.58	49% 2208-2325 (4533)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$7,837.96

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$3.92

Record

98%

20215-401 (20616)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$2,340.71

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$140.91

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,131.91

Value

$600.06

PnL

+$62.43

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

Both legs:

Under$399.5847¢+$76.52

Over$138.0649¢-$14.09

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$473.83

Value

$476.92

PnL

+$4.1

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$569.7

Value

$269.46

PnL

-$19.4

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Over$190.8249¢-$19.38

Under$83.4147.7¢-$0.02

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$271.17

Value

$151.86

PnL

+$12.89

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

MinevaJCTR

Under

Invested

$106

Value

$112

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

1209-942 (2151)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$110.36

Value

$72.79

PnL

+$16.03

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$48

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$20.53

Value

$20.69

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

27958-27406 (55364)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$64.13

Value

$19.56

PnL

-$10.58

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$37

Value

$16.28

PnL

-$1.11

Record

56%

2669-2059 (4728)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.67

Value

$12.14

PnL

+$1.72

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$9.69

Value

$10.28

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.