Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 3 FC Barcelona?
10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 77%
$4.8K
$24.68
97.2¢ → 97.7¢
+1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1.03 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 97¢ | $824.5 | $827.05 | +$2.55 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97¢ | $772.09 | $763.78 | -$8.31 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 97.3¢ | $255.09 | $255.57 | +$0.49 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 95.5¢ | $211.26 | $216 | +$4.74 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.3¢ | $159.59 | $157.85 | -$1.74 | 47% 2072-2311 (4383) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96¢ | $133.7 | $134.96 | +$1.26 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97¢ | $136.97 | $133.27 | +$0.41 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 97¢ | $110.61 | $111.21 | +$0.6 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $63.01 | $59.9 | -$3.11 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $26.67 | $53.79 | +$27.12 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $85.51 | $36.41 | -$0.37 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.78 | $0.8 | +$0.02 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
RN1Invested
$2,002.26
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.03
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
VeryLucky888Invested
$824.5
Value
$827.05
PnL
+$2.55
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$772.09
Value
$763.78
PnL
-$8.31
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$255.09
Value
$255.57
PnL
+$0.49
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$211.26
Value
$216
PnL
+$4.74
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$159.59
Value
$157.85
PnL
-$1.74
Record
47%
2072-2311 (4383)
Invested
$133.7
Value
$134.96
PnL
+$1.26
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$136.97
Value
$133.27
PnL
+$0.41
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$110.61
Value
$111.21
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$63.01
Value
$59.9
PnL
-$3.11
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Invested
$26.67
Value
$53.79
PnL
+$27.12
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$85.51
Value
$36.41
PnL
-$0.37
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.