Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 2 FC Barcelona?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$2.3K
$42.75
95.4¢ → 95.2¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.9¢ | $790.92 | $794.46 | +$3.53 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
 RN1 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $374.4 | $371.25 | -$3.15 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96¢ | $258.43 | $248.99 | +$0.83 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96¢ | $238.5 | $229.79 | +$0.36 | 57% 22226-16583 (38809) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.7¢ | $210.9 | $211.58 | +$0.68 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $201.72 | $196.88 | -$4.84 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 96.5¢ | $113.33 | $113.15 | -$0.18 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $84.24 | $84.59 | +$0.35 | 46% 30568-35672 (66240) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $24.78 | $73 | +$48.22 | 25% 1314-3963 (5277) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $77.72 | $12.99 | -$0.05 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $12.6 | $9.6 | -$3 | 49% 2142-2260 (4402) |
Invested
$790.92
Value
$794.46
PnL
+$3.53
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
RN1Invested
$374.4
Value
$371.25
PnL
-$3.15
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$258.43
Value
$248.99
PnL
+$0.83
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$238.5
Value
$229.79
PnL
+$0.36
Record
57%
22226-16583 (38809)
Invested
$210.9
Value
$211.58
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$201.72
Value
$196.88
PnL
-$4.84
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$113.33
Value
$113.15
PnL
-$0.18
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
Invested
$84.24
Value
$84.59
PnL
+$0.35
Record
46%
30568-35672 (66240)
Invested
$24.78
Value
$73
PnL
+$48.22
Record
25%
1314-3963 (5277)
Invested
$77.72
Value
$12.99
PnL
-$0.05
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$9.6
PnL
-$3
Record
49%
2142-2260 (4402)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.