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7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$22.16

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 99.2¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares8,910

Combined PnL+$1.81

Yes3 traders

Total Value$58.82

Total Shares2,100

Combined PnL+$20.35

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97¢	$171.05	$6.7K	-$24.18	50% 48590-48183 (96773)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.9¢	$837.21	$836.17	+$8.76	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 96.1¢	$546.09	$532.17	+$7.37	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 97.1¢	$286.29	$292.28	+$5.99	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.3¢	$233.4	$237.83	+$4.43	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 97¢	$138.52	$135.41	+$1.01	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 96.7¢	$187.09	$134.15	-$1.57	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$36.78	$57	+$20.22	25% 1318-4001 (5319)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.27	$1.15	-$0.12	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.43	$0.68	+$0.25	47% 2124-2359 (4483)

SnakeBall

Invested

$171.05

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$24.18

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

38791873984189

Invested

$837.21

Value

$836.17

PnL

+$8.76

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$546.09

Value

$532.17

PnL

+$7.37

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

Flaznorp

Invested

$286.29

Value

$292.28

PnL

+$5.99

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Limousin

Invested

$233.4

Value

$237.83

PnL

+$4.43

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

ghorrock

Invested

$138.52

Value

$135.41

PnL

+$1.01

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

Pan9X

Invested

$187.09

Value

$134.15

PnL

-$1.57

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.78

Value

$57

PnL

+$20.22

Record

25%

1318-4001 (5319)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.