Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 3 FC Barcelona?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$2.8K
$127.4
92.8¢ → 99.6¢
+7% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$86.94 | 47% 2177-2413 (4590) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 93.9¢ | $393.51 | $415.32 | +$21.81 | 47% 2124-2359 (4483) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.3¢ | $175.06 | $343.23 | -$10.5 | 50% 48590-48183 (96773) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 94.8¢ | $284.67 | $286.04 | +$1.37 | 49% 2208-2325 (4533) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90.2¢ | $221.14 | $243.54 | +$22.39 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 94.8¢ | $112.74 | $107.38 | +$0 | 58% 22563-16669 (39232) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $116.74 | $100.52 | +$2.37 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $89.33 | $98.55 | +$9.22 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $63.26 | $60.26 | +$0.06 | 57% 22242-16601 (38843) |
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $2.0K | $18.87 | +$14.54 | 25% 1318-4001 (5319) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $61.25 | $11.2 | -$12.41 | 52% 27270-24782 (52052) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $9.12 | $0.74 | -$8.38 | 46% 30579-35678 (66257) |
Invested
$1,037.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$86.94
Record
47%
2177-2413 (4590)
Invested
$393.51
Value
$415.32
PnL
+$21.81
Record
47%
2124-2359 (4483)
Invested
$175.06
Value
$343.23
PnL
-$10.5
Record
50%
48590-48183 (96773)
Invested
$284.67
Value
$286.04
PnL
+$1.37
Record
49%
2208-2325 (4533)
Invested
$221.14
Value
$243.54
PnL
+$22.39
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$112.74
Value
$107.38
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
22563-16669 (39232)
Invested
$116.74
Value
$100.52
PnL
+$2.37
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
RN1<$100Invested
$89.33
Value
$98.55
PnL
+$9.22
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
Invested
$63.26
Value
$60.26
PnL
+$0.06
Record
57%
22242-16601 (38843)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$18.87
PnL
+$14.54
Record
25%
1318-4001 (5319)
Invested
$61.25
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$12.41
Record
52%
27270-24782 (52052)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$8.38
Record
46%
30579-35678 (66257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.